Using VesselsValue data, Vivek Srivastava, senior trade analyst, is exploring the rise in global gas prices amidst the unfolding events between Russia and Ukraine.
"The Ukraine crisis has sent global gas prices sky rocketing, but there may be bigger forces at work in the seaborne LNG market,” Srivastava said in a statement from VesselValue. “While the world awaits developments on pipeline supplies, ship tracking data on seaborne LNG volumes may assuage the worst fears.
The European benchmark TTF gas price has risen 135% so far in 2022, with a near-vertical spike since Russia began hostilities in Eastern Ukraine on Feb. 24. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of gas, and Europe is heavily reliant on this, as Russia exports approximately 23 billion CBM of gas every day, about half of which goes to Germany, Italy, France and Belarus.
"Russia’s share of the seaborne LNG market is certainly large enough to move the needle on the global supply/demand balance,” said Srivastava. “Of the top 20 export regions over the last 12 months, Russia accounted for two, highlighted in red. The Eurasian Arctic contributed 4% of total volumes and the Russian Pacific another 2%. However, there are four much larger export regions, which each account for double-digit shares: the Middle East Gulf (20%), the Gulf of Mexico (14%), Southeast Asia (12%) and West Coast Australia (also 12%). Smaller changes in any of these four regions can outweigh larger changes in the two Russian regions."