Energy analysts are increasingly concerned about the oil and gas industry's ability to discover new resources. This shift comes as projections now assume a delayed arrival of peak oil, reflecting growing global resistance to rapid decarbonization efforts that often overlook societal costs.
Evidence of this pushback is widespread, as public resistance to solar and wind projects continues to grow. Intermittent renewable power has become an increasing operational challenge. Additionally, the economic burden of renewable energy subsidies has led many governments to dismantle incentive programs — most notably in the United States, where the recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill Act curtails or bans such subsidies. The economics of unsubsidized renewable energy now present a fresh challenge.
Global energy demand is surging, forcing utilities to extend the life of aging power plants to maintain grid reliability. At the same time, soaring electricity use from data centers and AI is driving growth not seen in decades. In response, utility executives are reassessing grid flexibility and planning how to ensure sufficient supply.
Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie revised its forecast due to a delayed energy transition, and it is now projecting that peak oil will occur well after 2030. The firm estimates that this delay will increase oil demand by 5%, adding 100 billion barrels by 2050. This projection aligns with the levels of oil consumption seen during the 2010s. While the scenario may reflect a balance between idealism and current realities, long-held demand outlooks from ExxonMobil and Chevron are increasingly being echoed by other forecasters and industry players.
The concern is whether the oil and gas industry has the capital and expertise to uncover sufficient new resources. Every major international oil company has announced increased exploration and production spending, with some making highly promising discoveries. These finds suggest the issue is not a shortage of oil, but the effort and investment required to locate and develop it.
The world is now realizing that if the oil and gas industry fails to deliver these new supplies in a timely manner, we could face another oil price “super spike” — similar to the one in 2008, when prices neared $150 per barrel. Such a spike would disrupt global economies, drive inflation higher, and push more people into “energy poverty.” That risk may be greater than that of a delayed energy transition.
