Revitalizing our maritime sector will require changes to existing shipping policies and the reallocation of transportation resources. Understanding what actions are needed requires knowledge of the sector. Unfortunately, knowledge is woefully lacking.
A recently declassified report for the Maritime Administration (Marad), mandated by Congress, explores alternative scenarios for growing the U.S.-flag fleet and expanding the nation's shipbuilding capacity to meet national and economic security needs. Will anyone read it?
The report, prepared by the nonprofit CNA Corporation, makes the following point: “The commercial maritime domain as a whole is not as well understood as the air, ground, and cyber operational domains. It is also not well integrated into national security policy or defense planning. Policymakers and the public would benefit from better understanding the importance of this sector to national security.”
This is a crucial point in any discussion about rebuilding our military and commercial shipping fleets and expanding our capacity to construct more ships.
Management consultant Peter Drucker once said, "What gets measured gets managed." That is true. Once we understand the magnitude of an issue, it becomes easier to forge the necessary policies and implement the required changes.
The new Marad study highlights problems with maritime industry data. For example, we do not know how many U.S. mariners are available to crew ships today. Are their licenses current? Have they been to sea recently? Are they willing to go? When the study projects the thousands of additional mariners needed to crew projected fleet additions, we have little basis for comparison with our existing mariner population. What we do know is that previous Marad studies have shown the military is unable to staff all the ships currently held in the Ready Reserve Force fleet.
It is worth noting that the analysis of the existing fleet to meet military sealift requirements counts 50 platform supply vessels (PSV) toward the small tanker need. These PSVs would come from the laid-up fleet or vessels operating in the spot market, as reported in a FY2020 study for the United States Transportation Command. How many of those vessels are realistically available today, six years later?
The conflict with Iran has spotlighted the critical role of the global maritime industry in national and economic security. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz demonstrates that nations must have the freedom to import and export goods. Given this requirement, the current U.S. fleet must grow by 15 times — a scale of expansion that cannot be achieved through new construction alone, meaning other approaches must be found.
While the CNA report offers a potential quantification of the challenges facing our maritime industry and possible solutions, nothing will happen until Congress and the administration act. That process must begin now. In the meantime, the U.S. remains at risk of a boycott by the international shippers that currently move our imports and exports. We are beginning to measure the magnitude of our problem. Hopefully, that leads to it being managed soon.
