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July 2010 - A death knell for offshore?

7/1/2010
A death knell for offshore? David Krapf, Editor in Chief

Hands down, the state that is taking it on the chin from the BP rig disaster is Louisiana. Yes, Alabama, Mississippi and Florida are getting hit too, mostly in the form of lost tourism dollars. But it's not even close to the triple whammy hitting the Pelican State (which may have to change its nickname if the state bird disappears).

This "perfect" trifecta consists of seafood (the state's rich marshes and estuaries are breeding grounds for much of the Gulf's seafood bounty), tourism and oil - three of the top revenue generators in the state. With oil, the problem, for better or worse, is that Louisiana sold its soul to the oil industry decades ago and now relies on it for tens of thousands of jobs and millions in tax revenue.

The federal government's six-month deepwater drilling moratorium has the potential to be a knockout blow for the state. It orders 33 semisubmersibles and drillships to halt operations in the U.S. Gulf, and some could relocate to overseas markets. And once they are gone, it will take years to get them back. Some may never return.

It SSRq s estimated that the moratorium may idle up to 400 offshore service vessels (and cost 1.5 million jobs if it lasts over a year, counting the ripple effect with suppliers and others). I believe it will idle closer to 100 OSVs, but that still will result in thousands of layoffs.

For the Obama administration, BP's negligence put them in a no-win situation. (Ironically, the April 20 disaster occurred about a month after Obama announced a limited expansion of offshore drilling.) With just about the entire country (except Louisiana) and much of the world expecting some sort of drilling moratorium, and many calling for an all-out ban, going ahead with business as usual offshore would have opened up the administration to even more criticism and would have been political suicide.

Though extremely remote, imagine if the president allowed drilling to continue and another Deepwater Horizon -type blowout occurred on his watch?

Hopefully, after the Interior Department unveils its rig safety measures, it will quickly release the pause button and allow deepwater drilling to resume on rigs that have already undergone numerous safety checks and can quickly satisfy Interior's new requirements.


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